March 20, 2020

If you're like me, you've been inundated with COVID-19 updates. I hit the breaking point this morning and recorded this video. Compared to the 60 minute long webinars everyone keeps sending me, I hope this 10 minute video tells you everything you need.

Here are some of the highlights:

  • SEM has been here before.

  • Every crisis is different, but they all tap into our behavioral biases, which is why SEM is structured the way...

October 23, 2019

The stock market is attempting to stabilize, but the economic indicators continue to point to a slowdown. In this brief economic update I highlight what the DATA is saying along with ideas on what you should be doing to prepare for what could be a big move up or down.

Download the slides here:

July 23, 2019

We are still feeling the impact of rate hikes from last September & December. Cuts now are unlikely to change direction of economic growth for a while, which is a big risk for investors.

July 11, 2019

Both our economic model and the current state of the stock and bond market highlight an environment that is uncertain at best, highly risky at worst. Here's what the data says and how our models are currently positioned to start the 3rd quarter.


Download the slides here

January 22, 2019

We cannot let the current market trend dictate the perceived value of an active risk management approach. If your portfolio lost more than you were comfortable with during the 4th quarter, this rally should be used to re-position your investments into something that is more suitable.

December 19, 2018

Depending on how the last part of December plays out, we could be bombarded with doomsday headlines. Already I've seen articles talking about the "worst start to December since the Great Depression" from both CNBC and CNN.  The market losses are showing up on local news stations and in local papers. While long-time readers know I have had major concerns about many big picture issues our country, economy, and the markets must a...

December 14, 2018

Things get worse if you get a recession scenario where the numerator (dividends, which drop due to a drop in earnings) and the denominator go the wrong way. It is completely reasonable to expect another 50% drop in the market during the next recession.

October 26, 2018

October has been a tough month for the stock market. Here's a brief explanation of what caused the sell-off, what is likely to happen going forward, how SEM's models have reacted, & what you should be doing right now.

 Here are some of the charts shown in the video.

September 20, 2018

Jeff was a guest on "Ask the Expert" with Mason & Associates in Norfolk, VA this week. During the show they discussed how the recent Hurricane in North Carolina can be an analogy of how we tend to deal with our investments and savings. In addition, several callers asked about some strategies for their own retirement plans, including a couple with specific questions on their Thrift Savings Plan accounts. 

Listen to the replay be...

September 12, 2018

Wondering what's going on with your portfolio this year? Whether you're an SEM client or not, SEM portfolio manager Jeff Hybiak explains what is happening this year in the markets and what you should be doing right now.

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