Maybe it was a coincidence, but before President Trump's first international trip as president, the markets were in a panic as controversy swirled around his administration. Many were calling into question not only whether or not any of his "good" policies would ever become law, but whether or not he'd still be in office in 2020. Then he left the country and all of those concerns seemed to disappear. After an impressive rally last week, which according to most headlines was due to the "deals" President Trump was able to make, the President is back in the US and the controversy is not dying down. Should we be surprised this is happening?
In addition to that noise, it wouldn't be the start of summer without some concerns about Greece's ability to re-pay its debt. As I've said since 2011 when these concerns first appeared -- MATH and LOGIC would tell anybody it is impossible for them to do so. The longer the EU prolongs this, the worse it's going to be. Why is everyone always so surprised when these headlines "suddenly" appear again?
Last Friday I posted my annual "sell in May" charts. Summer is a risky time to be blindly invested in the market. Thankfully for our clients, SEM's models do not get vacation days and are always on the job managing risk so you can enjoy your summer.