End of the Bull Market?

July 7, 2017

"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell." --Sir John Templeton
 

While we could have a long way to go in this bull market, Bank of America Merrill Lynch's consensus indicator is at its highest level since 2011. You may recall that was the last time the stock market went through any sort of correction -- with the S&P 500 losing nearly 20%.

Based on client reviews, conversations with advisors, the main stream financial media, and the outflow of assets from risk managed to unmanaged "low cost" accounts, it is hard to argue we are not in the "euphoric" area that Sir John Templeton warned about. Our scientifically engineered models are not as optimistic as everyone else it seems. All have taken money off the table recently, including our Dynamic Aggressive Growth program.  It doesn't mean the end is near, but it does mean the data is telling us the risks of a decline have increased significantly over the last few months.

Please reload

Featured Posts

Investment Grade Junk

September 11, 2019

1/10
Please reload

Recent Posts

November 13, 2019

November 6, 2019

October 10, 2019

September 26, 2019

Please reload

Connect
  • LinkedIn Social Icon
  • Twitter Social Icon
  • Facebook Social Icon
  • RSS Social Icon

Related Posts

Please reload

This site is for INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.  The comments and posts published in the SEM Trader's Blog ARE NOT investment recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.  CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by CFA Institute

Investing in the stock or bond markets involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before making any investment decisions you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with your investments and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. All investments involve risk including those managed by SEM Wealth Management.

Opinions expressed at www.stratequity.com, www.semwealth.com and semtradersblog.com or the previous Trader's Blog site are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of SEM Wealth Management or its management. Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information contained on this website, by SEM, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. SEM will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

 

The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Past performance is NOT indicative of future results.

***Anywhere performance of SEM's Investment Models is used, please refer to our Performance Snapshot  which contains details of the performance calculations for each of our investment models.***

 

There is no representation made as to the future results of SEM’s programs or if they will be profitable.

For additional information on the author and SEM Wealth Management, please see our DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT (ADV Part 2).