Positive signs, but still stuck in neutral

February 4, 2019

Hello again everyone.  I’m sure all of you are being extra productive today (why is it not Super Bowl Monday?)  Well don’t worry, for those of you watching closely SEM isn’t slacking given the passing of the first day of the month with no changes to our dynamic models.  Yes, even with the government shutdown our economic indicators didn’t pick up enough action to make a change from “neutral” where it has been sitting since the October. So, what you see out of your dynamic allocations will remain the same for now.  

 

Looking deeper into our quantitative economic model that sets the dynamic allocations, we can see things evolving. Despite the doom and gloomers out there, there are a number of different indicators that we were looking at that may be pushing our economic model back in the positive direction.  Strong job growth, manufacturing new orders, order backlog and stock market growth as all signs that perhaps we should get more bullish.  However, there just weren’t enough signs that things are “all clear” enough to be going into full bullish mode.  Housing starts and money supply are things we’re watching carefully that may potentially deter from economic growth. 

While January was a fantastic month for Dynamic Aggressive Growth even with our “neutral” position (up nearly 7%) it is important to stick strong to our analytical approach and not be trailing return chasers.  

 

Check back with us throughout the week to catch our insights and updates on our other models (and don't forget to watch our new SEM Market Monitor on the home page of the blog!

 

 

Cody Hybiak is a Portfolio Analyst & Investment Advisor Representative with SEM. He assists SEM's advisors in reviewing their investment allocations as well as importing and monitoring the data that generates the signals inside SEM's trading systems. Cody received his Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration (Accounting emphasis) from the University of Arizona with an emphasis in Accounting. He joined SEM in March 2017.  

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